IFES Pre-Election Survey in Nigeria

Publication Date: 
2 Apr 2015

Ahead of Nigeria's national elections in February, the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) conducted a pre-election public opinion survey, which found that a majority of Nigerians (61%) are very likely to vote in the presidential elections and 49 percent are very likely to vote in the National Assembly elections to be held in 2015. Approximately seven in 10 Nigerians expect the upcoming presidential and National Assembly elections to be free and fair.

Despite a clear majority of Nigerians expressing their intent to vote, over two-thirds of Nigerians (69%) are worried that violence may take place around the February elections. Regarding public perceptions of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), 68 percent of Nigerians are generally confident of INEC's ability to organize credible elections in Nigeria, with 18 percent expressing a great deal of confidence and 50 percent expressing a fair amount of confidence.

The main objectives of the survey are to:

  • Measure likelihood to vote and opinions of the 2015 elections, including expectations of integrity and perceptions of election violence
  • Evaluate voters' knowledge of and experience in the voter registration process and the distribution of Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs)
  • Assess voter knowledge of the upcoming 2015 elections, the adequacy of pre-election voter information and exposure to voter education messages
  • Examine preferred information sources and patterns of radio, social media, and SMS (short message service or text message) use
  • Elicit views of INEC and trust in electoral processes
  • Measure satisfaction with Nigerian democracy and political efficacy
  • Explore views toward women's involvement in politics

IFES interviewed 2,250 voting-age citizens in Nigeria (18 years or older) in 34 out of Nigeria's 37 states (including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja) from December 5 through December 18, 2014.