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Publication | Electoral Assessment

Preparing for Transitional Elections – Challenges and Opportunities for Building Democratic Resilience During Conflict and Other Crises

Author/Contributor
Dr. Fernanda Buril
Published
November 07, 2023

Elections can open a new chapter in a country’s history. Particularly following conflicts and other crises, elections carry the weight of enormous expectations, as citizens and the international community hope polls can provide closure and allow the nation to move on. Even during conflicts, elections are sometimes pitched as proof that democracy is still alive, as exemplified by recent suggestions from a few prominent individuals that elections should be held in war-torn Ukraine. But the challenges of holding elections in these scenarios are as big as the expectations they carry.  

For conflict and post-conflict elections to be a milestone for legitimacy, sustainable peace, and democratization – rather than more fuel for unrest – they must take place under appropriate conditions that may be difficult to meet in a compressed timeline. As IFES’s Peter Erben and Gio Kobakhidze have argued in the context of Ukraine, these conditions include reasonable levels of security and basic democratic standards, where people are able to “focus on a free and vibrant political contest and not on staying alive while under daily attack.” At the same time, waiting too long to hold elections can also bring its own set of problems, including political uncertainty and declining perceptions of government legitimacy.  

How can the international community support countries to hold meaningful transitional elections without rushing them to do so when conditions are not right?

Where immediate elections might not be possible or recommended, the international community, in partnership with democracy assistance providers, can focus instead on helping democratic institutions reform and recover from the losses they may have suffered during crises and build their resilience to withstand similar shocks in the future.1 Stronger institutions can then provide the accountability mechanisms needed to ensure not only the success of transitional elections but also of the country’s future democratic processes. 

In 2021, IFES published a report compiling lessons learned from democracy assistance programs in post-conflict and other transitional contexts. Below, we revisit some of these main findings and propose interventions that can help institutions and stakeholders recover from conflict-driven adversity and prepare for elections that support a peaceful transition. 

Areas, of Concern, Key Challenges for Elections, and Potential Interventions

Key Challenges for Elections 
Insecurity is a given during conflict, but even after conflicts end, security levels (or perceptions of safety) rarely go back to normal overnight. Candidates, election workers, voters, and observers require basic security guarantees to do their work and fully participate in the process. In addition to physical security, cybersecurity is also a key concern, as malign actors might attempt to still influence power by tampering with elections and undermining public trust in their legitimacy. 

Potential Interventions  

  • Support reforms or the removal of legal provisions that enable repression and intimidation of candidates, officials, voters, observers, and media professionals (e.g., bans on rallies and other restrictions on freedom of assembly, censorship laws, unrestrained powers of security forces). 
  • Help increase representation of different social groups in law enforcement (e.g., gender, ethnic, regional, and political groups), especially if the conflict was triggered by or caused/exacerbated identity divisions. 
  • Improve training of security personnel to establish proper standard operating procedures and prevent abuses.  
  • Map security incidents and help develop and implement security planning for future electoral activities. 
  • Help EMBs coordinate with different agencies to establish joint security operation centers that leverage differing mandates and expertise in security, logistical, and electoral matters. 
  • Help EMBs and other key institutions identify and patch existing cybersecurity vulnerabilities and support the preemptive strengthening of cybersecurity defenses to shield electoral processes from attacks. 
     

 

Key Challenges for Elections 
Conflicts and other crises often damage infrastructure that is essential for elections, such as public buildings and transportation and information management systems. Without reliable infrastructure, it can be hard to set up registration centers and polling stations, deliver electoral material across the country, or ensure the secure transmission of election results.

Potential Interventions  

  • Support the mapping, adaptation, and securitization of adequate physical locations for registration and voting services.  
  • As applicable, support the implementation of registration and voting services that do not rely on physical buildings (e.g., online registration systems) 
  • Help institutions (re)build information management systems and adopt new platforms or mechanisms that embed redundancy (enabling operations even if one or more aspect of the system fails). 
     

Key Challenges for Elections 
Conflicts are costly. Financial resources are often drained quickly through military equipment, operations, and logistics; humanitarian aid; and reconstruction of infrastructure. Additionally, conflicts can also disrupt the economy, reducing productivity and trade. Elections are also not cheap, especially when they require special logistical and security arrangements due to conflict-related conditions. Furthermore, when financial resources for elections are limited, investments in important activities such as civic education and voter information campaigns or activities to promote the inclusion of frequently marginalized populations tend to be reduced. 
 

Potential Interventions 

  • Support (procedurally and financially) the procurement of needed electoral material, equipment, and services while ensuring maintenance and other future expenses sustainably fit the country's budget. 
  • Support public institutions, civil society organizations, and other stakeholders in the development of civic education and voter information campaigns to properly inform the public about future electoral process and their options at the polls. 
  • Promote the participation of frequently marginalized groups in the future electoral process through accessibility reforms (e.g., accessible documentation and registration, physical accommodations at polling stations) and inclusive communication (e.g., different local languages, Braille, sign language). 

Key Challenges for Elections 
The loss of human capital is a serious consequence of conflicts and political crises. It is estimated that a quarter of the Ukrainian population had left their homes one month into Russia’s full invasion. Since 2014, Venezuela also saw about 20% of its population flee the country’s political and economic crisis. This exodus might affect elections in at least two major ways: 1) public officials, including election officials and workers, might leave the country and take with them the expertise and experience needed to hold elections; and 2) if elections are held before proper measures are in place to facilitate the participation of refugees and internally displaced people, a large percentage of the population will likely be disenfranchised, undermining the legitimacy of results. 
 

Potential Interventions  

  • Provide capacity-strengthening training and mentorship to new election personnel. 
  • Support internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, and other diaspora members to access relevant information about electoral processes. 
  • Support legal reforms and procedures to facilitate the registration and enfranchisement of IDPs, refugees, and other diaspora members. 
  • Facilitate coordination with foreign governments to enable registration and voting procedures to take place in consulates/embassies or other allowable locations. 
  • Conduct feasibility studies and support the piloting and implementation of new voting modalities that can help to enfranchise displaced citizens while minimizing the administrative and logistical burden of election operations. 
     

Key Challenges for Elections 
Peace agreements and other political arrangements do not magically erase feelings of distrust toward opposing sides of a conflict. Especially if key public institutions trusted with democratic processes are dominated by a certain group or party, transitional elections might still be perceived as biased (e.g., Venezuela and the Maduro’s cooption of the National Electoral Commission). 
 

Potential Interventions 

  • Support reforms to electoral institutions’ appointment processes to ensure fair representation and prevent cooption or undue influence from domestic or foreign actors.  
  • Create fora and other communication channels to promote inclusive consultations and build consensus on key reforms. 
     

Key Challenges for Elections
Another likely consequence of rushed elections amid crises or right after a conflict is the exacerbation of incumbent advantages. In the presence of a common external enemy, citizens are more likely to coalesce behind their leadership, and positive war outcomes can reward these leaders in the polls. Wartime politicians almost inevitably get more media exposure, while other candidates might find it hard to compete for attention and hold rallies and other mobilization activities during conflict. 
 

Potential Interventions  

  • Support oversight and enforcement institutions to prevent, identify, and address abuses of state resources. 
  • Support the development and dissemination of issue-based party platforms through traditional and new media. 
  • Support independent media outlets, train journalists, and promote pluralism to promote diversity of thought and minimize incumbents’ media dominance. 
     

While conflicts and crises might hinder the realization of safe and meaningful elections, they also do not need to represent a hiatus for democracy. Borrowing from Portuguese writer José Saramago, “Let us not rush, but let us not waste time.” As the interventions described above show, there are several ways the international community can help (re)build the resilience of democratic institutions in preparation for the polls.  

Meet our Experts

Fernanda Buril Deputy Director, Center for Applied Research and Learning
Harald Hartvig Jepsen Harald Hartvig Jepsen International Senior Adviser, Ukraine
Peter Erben Peter Erben Principal Advisor, IFES, and Senior Country Director, Ukraine
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Elections in Post-conflict Environments: The Role of International Organizations

In recent decades, the nature of conflict worldwide has moved from traditional inter-state conflict towards intra-state conflict. Whereas most violent conflicts during this past century have been between states, most major conflicts in the 1990s have taken place within states. It is in this environment that warring parties have realized that their objectives cannot be achieved through war, and subsequent efforts to resolve intra-state conflict through international mediation have led to its cessation in many parts of the world. The end of conflict in turn presents an unprecedented opportunity for these countries to rebuild their “societies, polities, and economies and embrace reforms that have been elusive in the past.” Arguably, the most important component of rebuilding war-torn societies is political rehabilitation. In not being able to effectively accommodate and reconcile the demands of competing groups in conflict situations, the state is unable to meet the essential political needs of its people, let alone economic and social considerations. Without a legitimate and effective governing political authority, economic and social rehabilitation cannot occur. But while the need for political rehabilitation is recognized, the international community has for the most part lacked a clear framework for political reform in post-conflict settings to inform its strategy and programmatic decisions. This is mostly because the primary focus of international assistance in the past has been on economic development and in relation to post-conflict environments—specifically economic rehabilitation. The result is that international efforts in this arena are more often than not designed and implemented without a cohesive and comprehensive plan of action, not to mention a lack of contextual understanding. Various political rehabilitation programs have included efforts to ensure security, good governance, a healthy civil society, an independent judiciary and—last but not least—elections. As numerous scholars and practitioners have noted, elections in post-conflict environments are fundamentally different from those organized under normal circumstances. In a post-Cold War era where intra-state conflict is rife and there is neither the ideological justification for continued conflict nor the material support from world superpowers, there has been strong economic and political pressure from the international community to democratize. As the foundation of a democratically representative political system, elections are widely regarded as an effective mechanism for articulating the political aspirations of competing groups that may have been party to the conflict in the first place. In addition, elections are supposed to settle the contentious issue of the political legitimacy of the government. Given this background, it is not surprising that the role of elections in post-conflict environments remains an area of contention among some scholars and practitioners. In a situation of conflict, unless a given party to the conflict has achieved a definitive victory, militarily or otherwise, the issue of determining who will govern must be resolved as a part of the peace process. Indeed, post-conflict elections are significant in that negotiated settlements could not be reached without them. Post-conflict elections are not only part and parcel of peace accords and the ensuing transitional period but also symbolize an end to intra-state conflict. With the increasing presence of the international community in conflict and post-conflict settings, the role of international organizations in post-conflict elections has come under increasing scrutiny. In addition to the mediation and peacekeeping function of the international community, international organizations have been involved in providing technical assistance and monitoring resources in elections abroad. But along with concerns related to the efficacy of designing and implementing post-conflict elections, the question remains of whether such elections result in an end to hostilities and the establishment of an environment conducive to economic, political and social rehabilitation and reconstruction. More importantly, what is the role of international organizations in ensuring the success of post-conflict elections? The discussion that follows is an attempt to address these two questions. Through an examination of the nature of elections in post-conflict environments, the paper provides a framework within which an analysis of the role of the international community can be undertaken. This framework is then utilized to situate and assess the role of international organizations in relation to post-conflict elections in general. The first section focuses on the theoretical concepts that define elections in post-conflict environments. In order to avoid any confusion related to these concepts, the section details the meaning of the concepts used in this study. This will not only clarify the conceptual underpinnings of the research but will also allow for in-depth understanding of the discussion and conclusion that follows. The second section discusses the methods employed and provides information about the resources utilized. This section also states the limitations of the research study. The third section delves into the topic of elections in post-conflict environments. It describes the particular characteristics and objectives of post-conflict elections, as these differ in more than one respect from elections held in stable and secure environments. The final portion of this section details the specific preconditions that can ensure successful elections in post-conflict environments. The fourth section focuses on the role of international organizations. As security is first and foremost amongst the concerns in post-conflict situations, the discussion begins with peacekeeping operations. The section then turns to international assistance in relation to political institutions and the reasoning and mechanisms involved in developing electoral infrastructure. The section concludes with a discussion of the role of international organizations in monitoring elections. The paper finishes with a discussion about the conclusions reached. Drawing on the conclusions, recommendations are offered to international organizations active in postconflict election environments and other similar areas.
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Electoral Conflict and Violence: A Strategy for Study and Prevention

An electoral process is an alternative to violence as it is a means of achieving governance. It is when an electoral process is perceived as unfair, unresponsive, or corrupt, that its political legitimacy is compromised and stakeholders are motivated to go outside the established norms to achieve their objectives. Electoral conflict and violence become tactics in political competition. There are examples of elections that have exacerbated long-term conflict (Angola 1992) or have politically hardened conflict-related alliances (Bosnia and Herzegovina 1996). From these experiences, it is generally recognized that post-conflict elections can be held too early and produce results that may extend the conflict rather than resolve it. However, in most cases, such elections mitigate the effects of larger conflict issues and reduce them into localized, manageable incidents...
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